[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1135 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WRN AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N18W
ALONG 4N28W 6N40W TO 6N45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N E OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SSE
SURFACE FLOW UP TO 25 KT IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WATERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OFF THE COAST
N OF TAMPICO. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ENE BASIN WHERE
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE WRN GULF THROUGH TUE...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION...MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS
CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW FROM
THE SW CARIBBEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WRN HISPANIOLA.
THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 74W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOONAL GYRE AROUND 11N79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO
14N80W. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. CLUSTERS OF WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 70W
DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS E OF TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE KEEPING THE WRN ATLC UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
OUR W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N49W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO WITHIN 200 NM N OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 25N63W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 25N50W TO 19N52W SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 21N34W TO 17N35W WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS NEAR 31N39W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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