[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT WED NOV 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 09/0600 UTC IS NEAR
27.9N 70.3W. SEAN IS MOVING WESTWARD 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ABOUT SEAN IS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 32N
BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN SENEGAL/GAMBIA NEAR
13N17W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N26W TO 6N37W
TO 8N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 51W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 14N38W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 7N43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
28W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH KANSAS TO
OKLAHOMA...AND WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT IS PASSING THROUGH EAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS...AND SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N95W BEYOND
32N91W ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 14N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N NEAR PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 63W AND
66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N74W ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST TO 11N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9.5N
TO 12N BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W...AND FROM COASTAL PANAMA NEAR
9N TO 11N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 31N19W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...THROUGH 30N20W TO 27N30W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N30W TO 25N42W AND 29N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
44W AND 47W...AND FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
47W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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