[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN NOV 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W...THEN CONTINUES TO 9N18W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N18W TO 7N40W TO 10N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 21W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 37N79W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W.
15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NE GULF WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN
THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
OVER E TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 19N84W 17N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 84W-89W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER
S...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 66W-71W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1008 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N71W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N61W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW IS SE OF THE GALE LOW
NEAR 28N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N. FURTHER E...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N19W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC GALE LOW NEAR 30N69W SUPPORTING
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE GALE LOW TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND SHOWERS TO REMAIN N OF THE
CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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