[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT NOV 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N59W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR DOMINICA TO 11N63W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES A BROAD AREA
BETWEEN 45W-70W AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W ALONG 8N17W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 8N22W ALONG 6N33W TO 8N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 11N
BETWEEN 21W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST
WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF OVER GEORGIA AND NW FLORIDA ALONG 28N90W TO NEAR TUXPAN
MEXICO WITH MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD MON AND WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING REACHING FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND FROM N FLORIDA TO BAY OF
CAMPECHE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE N COAST OF CUBA
WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N71W ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 13N74W
TO COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 10N75W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N77W JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 18N85W TO 17N87W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N79W TO
ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N83W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 11N W OF 80W TO OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR
WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE MON AND
THROUGH WED. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY SUN AS IT WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N71W SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS E
FROM A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N72W AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N66W ALONG 26N68W
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A
RE-ENFORCING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG
27N73W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO
THE GEORGIA COAST AND INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N51W TO 27N59W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N35W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 20N67W TO 26N59W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 250/325 NM OF LINE
FROM 20N56W TO BEYOND 32N40W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH 400 NM NW
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SURFACE LOW IN THE W ATLC WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT SW TO
HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE
SUN INTO MON AND DRIFT W TUE AND WED WITH FRONTAL TROUGH TO
HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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