[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 15N40W TO
12N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-113N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 54W/55W BETWEEN
8N-15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N86W ALONG
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR
15N88W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITS
SURFACE LOWS. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W
OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA ALONG 25N5W SW THROUGH A
1011 MB LOW JUST INLAND OVER MAURITANIA W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 13N20W TO 9N26W THEN W TO 8N35W. THE ITCZ
AXIS STARTS NEAR 4N37W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N43W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N23W TO THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR THE SENEGAL/GUINEA BISSAU AND WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 43W-53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM
8N14W TO 5N29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER N OKLAHOMA EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS SW TO N/CENTRAL MEXICO AND NE TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES
COVERING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW GULF
COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N W OF 86W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN THE CITY OF CAMPECHE AND
VERACRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND INTO THE NW ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND NE FLORIDA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE TO JUST N OF CEDAR KEY NEAR
CONTINUING WNW TO A 1010 MB LOW BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND
MOBILE ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 28N91W TO S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS IN THE SE GULF MOVING TO ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SEE ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR
25N93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING REINFORCED FROM STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SW FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLC COAST THROUGH
MON THEN DRIFT S AGAIN TO ALONG 27N ON WED. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE SE GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE MOVING INLAND MEXICO
LATER ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N66W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO 15N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 62W-71W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 10N80W TO A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO THE NE TIP OF NICARAGUA. MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA LATER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER E
CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE SE
CONUS AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N W OF 55W SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 27N62W TO A
1013 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPED AT 16/0900 UTC JUST OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA/GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W CONTINUING OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
SAINT AUGUSTINE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 30N80W TO NEAR
FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 61W...
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 63W...AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH NW OF THE
AZORES THROUGH 32N42W SW ALONG 24N62W THEN W ACROSS S FLORIDA
AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. THE 1013 MB LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE FRONT
AND LOW BUILDS S. ON THE SUN THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT AS THE LOW MOVES BACK TO THE W. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
TO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE N FLORIDA COAST MON THROUGH WED
WHILE THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT AND SUN THEN LIFT N TO NEAR 27N MON
AND BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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