[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 19N37W TO
12N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE N PORTION OF THE
WAVE SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-113N BETWEEN
35W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 14N48W TO
8N50W. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE
THE WAVE IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO 53W AT 0000 UTC AND MAY BE
RELOCATED ON THE 0600 UTC ANALYSIS. THIS GIVES THE WAVE MOVING
AT 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
49W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N84W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A VERY BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA E COAST. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA ALONG 23N5W SW ALONG
18N11W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 8N19W THEN W TO
7N24W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N34W 7N47W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 24W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 24W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER NE OKLAHOMA EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS SW TO N/CENTRAL MEXICO AND NE TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES
COVERING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW GULF
COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N W OF 84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN THE CITY OF
CAMPECHE AND VERACRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND
INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND NE
FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTON BEACH JUST S OF TALLAHASSEE TO
A 1008 MB LOW BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND MOBILE ALABAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND OVER S GEORGIA/S ALABAMA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
OVER THE N GULF ON SUN AND MON THEN DRIFT S TO ALONG 27N ON WED.
THE N PORTION OF W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAR SW GULF LATE SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N81W TO INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF
79W. AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 13N65W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO
14N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE...AND THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 10N80W TO
A 1007 MB LOW INLAND OVER N COSTA RICA/S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SAT.
THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN MON MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE SE
CONUS AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N W OF 55W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 29N62W TO 27N69W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N76W TO INLAND OVER NE
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N AND W
OF THE BOTH FRONTS AND FROM 25N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 74W
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS MARTINIQUE TO
NEAR 23N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 54W-57W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH JUST NW OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N40W SW ALONG 24N55W THEN W
ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THEN WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT SUN MOVING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON
MON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E SAT THEN LIFT N TO ALONG 27N MON
BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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