[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM
16N34W TO 9N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY
AIR THUS THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION REMAIN ATTACHED
TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM ALONG 15N65W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
8N67W MOVING NW NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N E
OF 70W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA ANALYZED FROM 23N73W
TO 17N74W MOVING WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 14N17W TO 8N17W TO 6N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM
THIS POINT ALONG 6N30W 8N37W TO 4N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N E OF 25W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 28N93W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AN AREA
OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
30N E OF 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW BASIN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N W OF 80W
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 12N W OF 76W DUE TO AN EXTENSION
OF THE MONSOON TROF ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 70W.
THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THIS
REGION. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NE CONUS SEABOARD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...COVERING THE FAR W
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE
GENERATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC N OF 28N W OF 77W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS S OF 21N
BETWEEN 62W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB AND A 1027 MB HIGHS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FG


WWWW
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