[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM
13N31W TO 8N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY
AIR THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM ALONG 14N62W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
8N62W MOVING NW NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N E
OF 68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER HAITI ANALYZED FROM 23N71W TO
17N73W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR FROM 14N16W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM
THIS POINT ALONG 4N30W 3N40W 5N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-10NE OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 28N92W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AN AREA
OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
27N E OF 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SSE WINDS UP TO 15 KT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW BASIN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N W OF 80W. THE
ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 68W AND 80W IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 68W. THE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THIS REGION.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NE CONUS SEABOARD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...COVERING THE FAR W
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE
GENERATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC N OF 28N W OF 77W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 21N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL ATLC TO GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net