[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 72.6W AT 24/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 350 NM SE OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 850 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
69W-73W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-24N
BETWEEN 63W-74W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 NM FROM THE CENTER AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 NM FROM THE
CENTER. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE 1007 MB LOW CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N22W
WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 12N26W TO OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N24W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 9-13 KT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 18N18W RESUMING SW OF THE 1007 MB
LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 11N24W 12N13W TO 10N38W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N40W TO 8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF TO NEAR
25N84W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 24/0300 UTC EXTENDS
FROM JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY TO 25N83W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NE GULF AND AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N
E OF 86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
LINGER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE IRENE
CENTERED N OF HAITI AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAINS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
S PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA
AND COSTA RICA. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW ACROSS BAHAMAS
TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MONA PASSAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WED MORNING THEN
DIMINISH ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO HURRICANE IRENE
CENTERED N OF HAITI...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST NEAR NEAR 33N76W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE
COVERS THE AREA FROM S OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-75W WITH AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO THE E NEAR 22N53W. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 50W-53W. A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED
AS A 1011 MB LOCATED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N40W BUT IS
NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC BASIN N OF 25N IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES AND A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 30N70W TO FLORIDA THEN
WEAKENING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH THU CONTINUING N THU NIGHT AND
FRI BEFORE EXITING THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY
SAT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net