[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 031807
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
200 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

CORRECTED TO ADD LINE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...EMILY STILL MOVING WESTWARD...APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED.....


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE VERY NEAR OR OVER CABO BEATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE TODAY...OVER HAITI TONIGHT...AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING EMILY AND
WILL GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE WESTERN
PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.  NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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