[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS NEAR 16.8N 70.3W AT
03/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS
MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
IS TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND
THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25...FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE LAND AND WATER
AREAS THAT GO FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. SABANA DE
LA MAR ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTED ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE
24-HOUR TIME PERIOD THAT ENDS AT 03/1200 UTC. T.S. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N31W 11N33W.
THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 55W/56W AT
03/0600 UTC HAS DAMPENED OUT IN THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT.
THE WAVE WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 03/1200 UTC ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N
TO 19N7W 14N14W 15N20W 10N37W TO 7N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N44W TO 6N53W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN FRENCH
GUIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
AFRICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 14W AND
20W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 15N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE FOLLOW THE FORECAST TRACK OF T.S. EMILY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ITS FORECAST TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TAKE IT
FROM CUBA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY MEAN SOME AMOUNT OF WIND AND
PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND POSSIBLY
OTHER AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TO 20N100W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN
90W AND 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 94W AND MEXICO
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE 20N100W
CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N90W IN THE CENTER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. EMILY IS MOVING FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 120 NM TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TOWARD WESTERN HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. T.S. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO
RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 29N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 25N73W TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA
NEAR 23N78W...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 20N TO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 78W AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SECTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO A 29N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 25N73W TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND
AND CUBA NEAR 23N78W...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 40 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N69W 30N74W 28N80W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 28N75W 26N79W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 30N68W 27N74W 25N79W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
57W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N29W...TO 32N41W 28N56W AND 24N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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