[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE S IVORY COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
5N5W ALONG 7N17W 1N29W 1N42W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
EQ51W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO JUST N OF TAMPA CONTINUING
TO NEAR 27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N90W 27N93W.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM S OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO SARASOTA CONTINUING SW
TO 25N87W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY SE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS INDICATED BY RADAR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEING FARTHER E...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT
WITH THE W ATLC PORTION CONTINUING TO PUSH SE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE FAR SRN PORTION OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN TEXAS...THE MEXICO
COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR NE GULF COASTAL WATERS. DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM PUERTO RICO TO COSTA RICA. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN SIDE OF
PUERTO RICO TO 16N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE
AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
14N79W TO THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN
65W-80W...WITH A THIN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS AREA ACTIVITY LIES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 992 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W TO NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ABOUT 90 NM SE OF THE
FRONT FROM 28N79W TO S OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA ALONG THE LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 37N71W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE FEATURE WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN 73W. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS TO THE E
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 9 HRS N OF 27N EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A SECOND COLD FRONT
SKIMS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N48W TO
30N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT TO THE S AND E ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 25N48W AND 27N28W KEEPING MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB LOW
OFF THE PORTUGAL COAST ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N20W ALONG
29N26W 28N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT
AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N15W ALONG 30N23W 27N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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