[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN LIBERIA COAST ALONG 11W TO 4N20W TO 3N30W
2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
7N TO THE EAST OF 50W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N...CROSSING FLORIDA AND REACHING
THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF 75W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 28N. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF
OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N90W TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG
22N98W...IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. THE ONLY CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INLAND AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 75W AND MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS ON TOP OF THE FRONT AND EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N87W 27N85W 27N84W...
AND THEN OVER FLORIDA TO 28N82W AND 29N81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA
AND BEYOND JAMAICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...BEFORE
TURNING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND THEN EXITING THE AREA ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE REST OF THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THERE.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 22N66W TO 16N64W ON TOP OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE BLOWN EASTWARD AND THEY COVER THE AREA FROM
18N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 20N
BETWEEN 63W AND 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD...TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A.
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS CLOUDINESS
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. MOSTLY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N...REACHING 40W.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY IS CAUGHT UP IN AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT...
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 28N35W...CONTINUING AS
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N35W TO 25N45W 25N55W...
AND 24N61W. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N32W TO 4N38W. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 3N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT



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