[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS IS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA AT
4N9W TO 3N20W 2N30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
TWO COLD FRONTS ARE IN THE GULF THE EASTERN FRONT EXTEND FROM
FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A 30-40 NM WIDE
BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAVE DECREASE HOWEVER
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED CROSSING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N8W. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW
GULF OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS MOVING NE TOWARD LOUISIANA OTHERWISE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS W OF THE FRONT. A 115-120 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM
26N99W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N WITH OVERCAST STRATUS
CLOUDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST
OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN AS THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH LINGERS N OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTER SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF AROUND 13N. BRISK TRADE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS TO 25 KT AND UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OVERCAST
LOW TOP COLDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. A 60-70
NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AN AREA OF SLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF
29N TO 74W...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY
THIS EVENING. A 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR  28N59W
SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF 50W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 25N W OF 40W WITH PATCHY AREAS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA N OF 20N.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N137W
TO 8N29N. A 105-115 KT JETSTREAM ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N50W TO 24N38W THE WEAKENS
TO 95 KT AND CONTINUES TO 32N29W. COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC FROM 32N20W TO 20N36W THEN CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO 16N57W THEN BECOMES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THIS FEATURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
DGS




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