[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF LIBERIA AT 4N9W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 2N30W
3N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED NEAR OR ALONG THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF GUINEA
FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 4W AND 8E.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SET OF TWO COLD FRONTS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG
30N83W 28N82W 26N82W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN CUBA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SCATTER SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS PASSING OVER THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA
AND WILL IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DEVELOP IN THIS REGION.
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED CROSSING THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 30N87W AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTH
ALONG 28N87W 26N88W 24N89W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST GULF AND
RE-ENFORCING THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THUS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS LOOSEN PRODUCING
10 TO 15 KT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE EAST OF
90W...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED. IN 24 HOURS
THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD CROSSING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...WHILE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BRINGING CALM WEATHER TO THE REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEA BASIN AS THE TAIL END OF A
TROUGH LINGERS NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTER SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN. THIS FRONT IS
ANALYZED ALONG 22N85W 20N86W 18N86W 16N85W. SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
TO 80W. EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHWEST
BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CORNER OF
THE ATLANTIC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 74W. A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SEEN EAST
OF 70W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF 50W. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N22W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LOW CENTER ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N23W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 23N30W 20N37W 18N43W CONTINUING WESTWARD AS
A STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N60W. FROM THIS POINT...A TROUGH
CONTINUES NORTHWEST PASSING 40 NM NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS....PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTER SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO...THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST WITH DEBILITATED
CONVECTION IN IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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