[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE
ITCZ ALONG 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 2N AT THE
PRIME MERIDIAN...3N14W 4N27W 5N46W 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH MEXICO ALONG ITS
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...FROM A SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N105W TO 20N101W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EVENTUALLY BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS ALMOST ALL OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FROM
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT LEAST FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS AS A STATIONARY FRONT SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE
ISLAND. MORE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN AND AROUND PUERTO RICO
STILL. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 20N63W TO A POINT
THAT IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST. THIS FRONT IS WHAT
REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MAINLAND
U.S.A. DURING THE LAST WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF FLORIDA. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS
FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N70W 14N79W BEYOND THE
BORDER OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 8N83W.
BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALONG
A TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 10N78W TO 14N76W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W ARE
ASSOCIATED A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM
10N IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 15N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. A STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...NOW PASSING
THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N50W TO 21N60W TO PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT CLOSELY...NOW WITHIN 150 NM TO
200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT...FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND
60W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
STATIONARY FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT
IS BEING DRIVEN BY ONE OF THE MANY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT IS IN THE
WESTERN-TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AT THIS TIME. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N18W TO 25N34W
21N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 14N43W 7N45W 1N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT



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