[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 2N40W AND TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLC COAST NEAR
32N79W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NE TO
E WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF AS CAPTURED
BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 14/0320 UTC. W OF 92W...E TO SE
WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF
WATERS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. MOIST SWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND IS
ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG
103W...SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 90W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW
GULF WATERS. SE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SHEAR LINE
THAT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SW PUERTO RICO.
IT EXTENDS SW ALONG 16N71W 14N78W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA
NEAR 9N82W. CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF
THE SHEAR LINE FROM 15N72W TO OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N74W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 12N TO THE
SHEAR LINE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N71W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF QUICK PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W
OF 55W BEHIND A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
AXIS ALONG 32N45W TO 27N59W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N51W TO NEAR 26N60W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N47W TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W
AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N53W TO 23N60W THEN CROSSING PUERTO RICO
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN






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