[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W THEN TO 1S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 3W-21W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 29N94W. THIS
SURFACE FEATURE IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE
LIGHT NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF
THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NW MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN GULF BY LATE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MERGING
WITH AN EASTERN CONUS SURFACE HIGH WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF
THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND TRAILS SW AS A SHEAR LINE ALONG
18N73W 15N77W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. THIS
BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE W
ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OCCURRING NW OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA...JAMAICA....AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. SE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NE
TO E TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-74W AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY S OF 18N E OF 65W. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N66W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
75W WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT HOWEVER FOR THOSE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS
FROM 32N54W TO NEAR 24N66W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N50W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS SW TO
ALONG 25N58W TO 21N64W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE COLD FRONT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE CONTROLLED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N20W AND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N40W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN






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