[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N25W 2N40W AND TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 11W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED ON A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS
PRODUCING PRIMARILY LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE
GULF THIS EVENING. ALOFT...ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF EAST OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO EMERGE OFF THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE AND TRAILS SW ALONG 17N70W 14N80W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY WITHIN 250 NM NW OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...JAMAICA...CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SE OF THE FRONT
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NE TO E TRADEWINDS UP TO 25
KT CONTINUE AS NOTED BY A RECENT 12/0220 ASCAT PASS. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE
CONDITIONS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
REMAINING E OF 64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM
32N59W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N56W AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 25N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. EAST OF THE LOW...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 33N
TO 42W. SWLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS PROVIDING FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 42W-56W. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N20W AND IS
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WSW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N40W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN





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