[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280622 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

AMENDED IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE DISCUSSION SECTIONS
FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 28/0600 UTC IS NEAR
28.5N 61.0W...OR ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 28/0600 UTC IS NEAR
16.1N 48.6W...OR ABOUT 740 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 56 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N23W...ON TOP OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 12N25W...BEYOND 6N26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 37W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE 28/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ...

8N13W 9N18W...8N28W 13N38W...11N47W 9N54W TO 10N62W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 4N TO 8N...AND FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE SPANS THE AREA.
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...AND ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 25N...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER AND A TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO AN
18N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 80W IN PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA...NEAR THE ITCZ. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
COSTA RICA NORTHWARD...IN THE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
HURRICANE DANIELLE...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF
MEXICO RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 24N71W CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS BETWEEN HURRICANE DANIELLE AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 66W. THIS AREA INCLUDES
PART OF SOUTH AMERICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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