[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 28/0600 UTC IS NEAR
28.5N 61.0W...OR ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 28/0600 UTC IS NEAR
16.1N 48.6W...OR ABOUT 740 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 56 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N23W...ON TOP OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 12N25W...BEYOND 6N26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 37W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE 28/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ...

8N13W 9N18W...8N28W 13N38W...11N47W 9N54W TO 10N62W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 4N TO 8N...AND FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...WITH
A RIDGE THAT CUTS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N
TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AS A SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AT THE MEXICO COAST FROM 20N TO 23N...IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26 BETWEEN 29W
AND 31W. OTHER COMPARATIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING BUT STILL APPARENT FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 66W AND 71W...ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHOSE CENTER IS NEAR 23N65W. THIS IS CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 23N65W CYCLONIC
CENTER ULTIMATELY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS. WEAKENING SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM JAMAICA
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 24N74W TO
A 19N78W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING
INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA...
AND EL SALVADOR.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W IN A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. TROPICAL STORM EARL COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. INFORMATION ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
THE EAST IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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