[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 081443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
BERMUDA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COLIN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS LITTLE...IF ANY...ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...COLIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON
COLIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION. IF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

COLIN IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES
AT 10 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING COLIN
OR ITS REMNANTS NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/1500Z 32.0N  65.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 33.3N  65.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 35.3N  64.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 37.9N  63.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 41.2N  58.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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