[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 65.6W OR ABOUT 160
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 08/1200 UTC...MOVING N AT 3 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COLIN REMAINS WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER NW OF THE CONVECTION. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO THE ERN SIDE OF COLIN WHILE LOWER VALUES ARE TO THE
W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED SE OF THE
CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 64W-66W. COLIN LIES UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
TO EACH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND COLIN DOES NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N41W TO 8N42W
MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 22N.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N
BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 42W-44W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS TO THE SW OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 43W-49W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N32W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N
BETWEEN 32W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO
13N92W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE
WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THE WAVE LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW GULF AND UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-95W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS
FORMED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 90W-91W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF MEXICO FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 92W-96W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA AT 11N14W
CONTINUING ALONG 9N22W 10N34W 13N42W 10N53W 10N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-25W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 35W-39W...AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N84W CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE
NW GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SRN TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW GULF AND
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-95W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED SWD INTO THE AREA NOW LYING
ACROSS NRN FLORIDA ALONG 31N81W 30N85W 31N89W SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS S OF THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF 93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 82W-84W NEAR THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. MORE ACTIVITY IS E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DIPS SWD BRINGING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SOME
MODERATE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF CUBA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS HAITI. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR W ATLC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-87W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN
EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG
11N. THIS ACTIVITY IS IMPACTING NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY ELY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NOW LIES ALONG 16N63W TO 12N63W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 59W-65W.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA
N OF 24N W OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS
PUSHED SWD ACROSS NRN FLORIDA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE ERN CONUS AND NW ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W. HOWEVER...IT IS
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS KEEPING SURFACE CONDITIONS
FAIR BETWEEN 67W-76W AROUND A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N71W. TO
THE E...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS STILL PRODUCING DISTURBED
WEATHER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 16N54W TO 13N52W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 50W-55W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
NEAR THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
36N49W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER COLIN BETWEEN
61W-69W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
W...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS NEAR 23N37W AND 23N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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