[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 65.8W OR ABOUT 205
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/1800 UTC...STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COLIN IS DISORGANIZED AND IS
DEFINED BY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES OVER THE SYSTEMS
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RELATIVELY SHARP RIDGE ALOFT IS IN THE
AREA SURROUNDING COLIN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 38W
FROM 13N TO 23N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N38W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLANTIC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES
STRETCHING FROM THE THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND
42W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE HIGH FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM
COZUMEL ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH AN ENHANCED INVERTED V SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH THE DEEPEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
BELIZE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 29W
FROM 07N TO 14N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
28W AND 32W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR 13N16W CONTINUING
ALONG 09N24W TO 16N38W TO 10N50W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 09N TO 10N E OF 20W AND ALSO FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OVER THE WESTERN GULF A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 26N94.5W...MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT.
THIS FEATURE HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 8 DEGREES AND WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED S OF THE CIRCULATION S OF 24N W OF 88W.
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
E OF ABOUT 88W. THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED N OF A LINE FROM
S TEXAS TO 28N90W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST NEAR TAMPA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS
COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 18N78W. LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N TO 17N IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 60W FROM 12N TO 17N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRONOUNCED FEATURES ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC.
STARTING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N73W AND IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW LOCATED BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 23N52W AND IS MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES.
BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS A SHARP RIDGE ALOFT IS
LOCATED BETWEEN 58W AND 68W AND ENCOMPASSES TROPICAL STORM
COLIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM THE N
BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS ARE LOCATED S OF 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W AND
55W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND
44W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHED W AS A UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N50W AND A 1024 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 32N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB





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