[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS FROM 18N24W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. WAVE IS TO THE SW OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND
OVER W AFRICA AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 16N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 67W-74W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N16W 13N24W 8N37W 10N46W 9N50W
INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 12N62W 13N73W THEN ACROSS PANAMA/
COSTA RICA INTO THE PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
ITCZ FROM 20W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE MISSISSIPPI
CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W INLAND
OVER MEXICO TO NEAR 23N99W. THIS INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S
OF TAMPICO W OF 94W. STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF
COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 23N84W TO
30N86W WHICH IS JUST W OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 26N84W TO 29N85W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST W OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 77W AND
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W ACROSS
JAMAICA TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W...WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM
21N81W TO 19N85W...AND FROM 16N-18N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER
BELIZE. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED NEAR 15N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 15N74W TO 12N80W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE LESSER ANTILLES CURRENTLY REMAIN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE
LATER TODAY AS THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES APPROACHES THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 26N BETWEEN 76W-82W
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN...IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING
FROM 20N56W TO 13N58W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO
THE E OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N61W TO
30N55W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N62W 27N59W TO 29N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N
OF THE AZORES AND A 1026 MB HIGH 750 NM ENE OF BERMUDA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ARE UNDER RATHER BENIGN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND THUS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net