[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA AT 05/1500 UTC IS NEAR 13.1N 83.7W
OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM ...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD
AND MUD SLIDES. A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 79W-85W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W
S OF 15N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM TO THE EAST OF IDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 11N48W TO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
10W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 21W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 27W-31W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 9N39W. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W FROM 8N-17N. A
SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 55W FROM 9N-16N. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF EACH FEATURE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSOURI NEAR 37N92W. ANOTHER
1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. NE
SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE SW GULF. THE E GULF HAS
20-25 KT WINDS WHILE THE NW GULF HAS ONLY 10 KT WINDS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE S
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF
90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF
27N. EXPECT..CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IDA...AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 15-20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 65W-73W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
63W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
FROM IDA. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER
HISPANIOLA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM NEAR BERMUDA AT
32N64W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N67W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
19N-24N BETWEEN 60W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N51W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N31W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 28W-32W. UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA





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