[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
24W TO 2S45W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF
THE AXIS E OF 11W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND COTE D'IVOIRE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN
24W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 20W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF THE
AXIS TO 2N W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC ALONG 101W/102W IS
EXERTING AN INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS IS IMPINGING UPON THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW
GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING EWD ACROSS THE NW GULF
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT
FLOW. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF FLORIDA JUST S OF TAMPA TO
NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. A PATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS WAS NOTED N
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE BUT
WAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE FACE OF INCREASING SE FLOW.
THIS FLOW WAS ALSO ADVECTING STREAMERS OF LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE GULF E OF 90W AND THE FAR W GULF MAINLY W OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDED FROM JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SW TO A BASE NEAR 14N81W. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CLOSED
UPPER LOW MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS TROUGH
IN THE VICINITY OF E CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. NW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WAS INDICATED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND BROAD WSW FLOW
E OF THE AXIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT N OF 17N AND E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
...GENERALLY OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. AT THE SURFACE...
A TROUGH...POSSIBLY AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST
CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXTENDS FROM 11 TO 20N ALONG
62W. SCATTERED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH OVER
MOST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT
OCCURRING BETWEEN ST MAARTEN AND ANTIGUA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE WITH LOW TOP
SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREA DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE
GENERATED N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 71W-79W
INCLUDING JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM NEAR
32N54W SWWD ACROSS 28N60W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND CONNECTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN
SECTION. THIS TROUGH TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE E-CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDING SWD TO HISPANIOLA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N46W EXTENDING
TO 25N60W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING FRONT TO 26N70W. A WARM
FRONT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N81W TO THE FL
COAST NEAR ST AUGUSTINE WAS MOVING INLAND. ELSEWHERE BROAD ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC N OF 20N AND E OF 50W. THE FLOW
TURNS MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 50W AND
ANOTHER RIDGE DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 14N E OF 40W. A WEAKNESS
WAS NOTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT.

$$
COBB






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