[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 4N TO 2N10W 1N20W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W...TO 1S40W AND INTO NORTHEASTER
BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INLAND AND JUST OFF THE COAST IN AFRICA WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 8N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN
5N3W 6N5W 5N9W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N9W
TO THE EQUATOR 20W...AND WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 20W TO 1S25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5S BETWEEN 25W AND
35W...FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM THE COAST TO
4S BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 6S BETWEEN
20W AND 50W IN THE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
26N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N76W TO 12N79W.
THIS TROUGH PASSES JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO 270 NM EAST OF
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...CROSSING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WARM
FRONT IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST FROM 31N80W TOWARD
THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND BEYOND. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N80W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N...
CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W...TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 25N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE BAHAMAS...
PARTS OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE.

ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE 32N60W 26N71W 16N76W 12N79W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR
WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF 27N...ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF 28N. UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS MEXICO NORTH OF 27N/28N. UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO IN ORDER TO COVER
TEXAS SOUTH OF 30N EAST OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO BEYOND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 61W/62W FROM 12N TO 20N IS SPREADING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE
32N60W 26N71W 16N76W 12N79W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N TO 22N
TO 32N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN NORTHERN AFRICA AND 33W.

$$
MT



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