[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
38W TO 1S45W. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 2S17W TO 4S30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM EQ-7S BETWEEN 28W-35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
22W-35W...AND FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 2S-4S
BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH AXIS ALONG 105W DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE
GULF WITH MAINLY NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A PATCH OF MOISTURE OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF SLIDING ESEWD AT 15
KT. THE FLOW WAS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER E-CENTRAL TEXAS AND
WAS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...15-20 KT SELY RETURN FLOW COVERED THE
GULF AND WAS FUELING THE AREA OF STRONG STORMS OVER E-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. RAOBS FROM LAKE CHARLES AND CORPUS CHRISTI
INDICATED ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP
AMOUNTS WERE IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES IN THE AREA. BROKEN MAINLY
LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 90W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N95W
DOMINATES THE PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GENERALLY W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE. CONFLUENT
FLOW INTO THE BASE OF A FLAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERING VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...LATEST
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TRADES DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE PUERTO RICO TO ERN CUBA AND
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PREVENTING ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RATHER FLAT BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W
OF 55W WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH...THE FIRST ALONG 66W N OF 22N WAS MOVING E AT 15 KNOTS
AND THE SECOND WAS SLIDING OFF THE SE COAST ALONG 80W AND N OF
27N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 12N
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY FROM 5N TO 25N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT GRAZED THE AREA FROM 32N62W TO 30N73W WHERE IT BECAME
STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR ST AUGUSTINE. THE FRONT
INTERSECTED WITH A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM 30N78W TO 27N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED NEAR
THE FRONT AND TROUGH INTERSECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A STRONG 1032 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N31W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-60W WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

$$
COBB






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