[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W TO 2S46W.  A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 1S17W TO 3S27W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM 1S-2N
BETWEEN 45W-47W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-1N BETWEEN 31W-33W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 36W-45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
TROUGH FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 17W-25W...AND FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN
28W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
15-20 KT SELY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A
STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN
91W-93W MOVING E.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 90W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE N
GULF N OF 23N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.  EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA N OF 17N.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
LEADING EDGE OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE N BAHAMAS FROM
29N78W TO 25N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN
75W-79W.  A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N32W.  BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
15N BETWEEN 10W-60W WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 65W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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