[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 3N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO 1S46W.  A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM EQ4W TO 2S20W 3S29W.   WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE NRN ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 12W-20W...AND BETWEEN 28W-50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE SRN ITCZ FROM 4S-EQ
BETWEEN 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W.  10-15 KT
SELY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 1015 MB
LOW IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 31N95W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE S TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF
24N AND W OF 90W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE W
GULF W OF 90W.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 22N AND
W OF 85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA FROM
8N-9N BETWEEN 83W-85W.  FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG
80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
31N74W TO 27N77W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 73W-76W.  A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N37W.  BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
15N BETWEEN 10W-60W WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 65W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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