[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N18W 4N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO 1S49W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 1N13W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W AND INTO
BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 40W-48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 9W-18W...FROM 19W-31W...WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO S OF THE EQUATOR...AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
AND THE GULF W OF 85W ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA N
OF 23N W OF 87W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF
24N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AN INDUCED
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE US AND THE E GULF AND
INTO THE W ATLC BY THE UPPER RIDGE ABOVE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF BUT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH A
1020 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. THIS
CONTINUES TO GIVE THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH
SOME BANKING OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO W
OF 96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE INDUCED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17W TO OVER
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN
WITH THE TRADE WINDS AND DOT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W TO OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE INDUCED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC W OF 82W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS INDUCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N75W TO THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W AND IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO
THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N60W NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC TO 30N40W. A
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM
25N70W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA. THE E
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N15W SW TO 24N26W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ANCHORED BY
A 1028 AND 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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