[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N19W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 2S46W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF A
LINE FROM BEYOND THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 5W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N W OF 30W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF UPPER SW
FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E U.S. IS PROVIDING
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 89W. A
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 120 KT IS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO OVER THE SE U.S. NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING SKIRTING THE N GULF AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF
SANTA CLARA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 80W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS.
MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
THE SE COAST OF CUBA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
ABC ISLANDS AND USHERING IN CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA
LIMITING ANY OTHER AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC OVER BERMUDA EXTENDING
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA JUST E
OF SANTA CLARA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS N OF THE REGION.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N40W SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N42W
THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N45W TO 20N45W BUT DUE TO THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLC THERE IS ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E ATLC TO THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH NO
SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N25W AND COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A JETSTREAM OF
WINDS FROM 90 TO 130 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITHIN 200 NM OF
LINE FROM 18N50W 27N30W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 24N15W.

$$
WALLACE




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