[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092253
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO 2S46W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W PRODUCING
15-25 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF
22N AND W OF 86W.  MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N79W
PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 110-130 KT
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  EXPECT...CONTINUED CLOUDINESS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO SURFACE RETURN
FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N
HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W 20N84W 19N87W 16N88W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT.  FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
15N...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N79W.  ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS W OF
70W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT
...THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING N OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
BERMUDA TO 27N71W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N78W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N42W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N46W.
EXPECT THIS SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW TO 28N46W IN 24 HOURS.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  A
TROUGH IS BETWEEN 45W-65W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
29N47W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
E ATLANTIC NEAR 10N16W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 26N E OF 50W.   AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS
OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 23N BETWEEN 27W-43W.
EXPECT...THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N60W
IN 24 HOURS...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT RETROGRADES
BACK N FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NRN BAHAMAS AS A WARM FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA





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