[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA 5N10W TO 2N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S46W
AND INLAND TO 2S50W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 0.5N TO
3N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
19.5W AND 21W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND REMAINING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1.5N BETWEEN
16W AND 18W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 0.5N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE COLD FRONT...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT...

THE NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER NEAR
32N88W TO 23N99W IN EASTERN MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR
27N82W TO 25N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRAIGHT THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N86W...CURVING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL BELIZE AND CUTTING
ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO 17N92W IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
A SQUALL LINE IS WITHIN 45 NM TO 70 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM 24N TO 28N...SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE REST OF THE LINE 30N78W 26N80W 23N82W AT THE CUBA COAST...
20N84W...16N87W AT THE HONDURAS COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM WEST OF THE
LINE OF PRECIPITATION. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
300 NM WEST OF THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 29N
WEST OF 75W FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 KT TO 35 KT
AND SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 FT TO 14 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST ALSO IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND
92W FOR NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30 KT TO 35 KT AND SEAS FROM 10 FT
TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT SEAS 12 TO 18 FT EXCEPT 8 TO 13 FT EAST OF 90W.
PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS
INTO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND COVERS THE AREA MOSTLY EAST OF
70W...THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE BROAD ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N55W TO 29N66W TO 24N70W TO 19N79W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN LINES OF CLOUDS/CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS
EAST OF 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN....

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N38W...TO 20N40W TO 15N60W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N38W IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 25 KT TO 30 KT WINDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER WESTWARD...PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N35W
26N36W 23N43W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 30N32W 26N32W 19N39W.

$$
MT


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