[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 47W...TO 1S50W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO 24N101W IN MEXICO. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO 17N92W IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N83W 22N85W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN GENERAL
ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REST OF LINE
THROUGH 32N77W 28N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...28N80W 25N83W
19N87W FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEST OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST 30 KT TO 40 KT AND SEAS FROM 10 FT TO 16 FT
ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 88W AND
95W. ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTH
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS FROM 12 FT TO 18 FT IN
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH SWELL...EXCEPT 8 TO 13 FT EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 66W...THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE
BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N55W TO 26N62W TO 21N64W
TO 16N83W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN LINES OF CLOUDS/CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS EAST
OF 11N65W 16N75W...AND NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W.
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO
TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE OF LINE 28N80W 25N83W 19N87W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN....

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N38W...TO 20N40W TO 15N60W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N38W IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 25 KT TO 30 KT WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW...PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 27N TO 35N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N36W 25N37W 24N41W. A SECOND TROUGH
IS ALONG 30N33W 26N32W 23N34W.

$$
MT






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