[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N10W 3N20W...1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W...TO
2S40W...THEN INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO 3S50W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W...
AND SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA CUTS ACROSS THE CLOUD TOPS OF
THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/
COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 33W AND 50W.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N119W TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INLAND AND NOW IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA
BORDER...SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
TO ARIZONA AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM MAY END UP INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS MEXICO INTO
TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TO TEXAS. MOSTLY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
LOOKED BETTER ON YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE RETURN FLOW IS NOT AS ORGANIZED OR EASILY RECOGNIZABLE
TODAY. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND RACE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM NEW YORK TO PENNSYLVANIA TO VIRGINIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE TROUGH RIGHT NOW DIGS
TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 60W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
31N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N52W TO 27N60W TO
24N70W TO 21N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N77W OVER
CUBA TO 18N84W TO NORTHERN BELIZE. A JETSTREAM WITH WIND SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 90 KT TO 120 KT WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITHIN 330 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W...AND FROM 17N TO CUBA WEST OF 82W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PREVALENT. THE SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IS LARGELY CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W
AND 84W...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N29W TO 17N37W 11N50W 10N60W. THE
GFS MODEL FORECASTS A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N26W
IN TWENTY FOUR HOURS AT 02/1200 UTC. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 40N17W. A RIDGE EXTENDS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO 37N32W TO 28N46W.

$$
MT


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