[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N12W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W...
2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
S OF 1N TO THE S AMERICA COAST W OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SATELLITE
CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE.
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RACE QUICKLY ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL AND NE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING COVERING MOST OF
THE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS. THE
FLOW WEAKENS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 18N85W. SCATTERED WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVER
THE SW PART OF THE AREA NE WINDS ARE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TO ABOUT 50W N OF 18N. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST W OF 70W AND MEASURE AS HIGH AS 75 KNOTS. MOVING
DOWNSTREAM A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N31W AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN DIAMETER.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION THROUGH 20N40W TO
NEAR 12N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED 8 TO 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 80 TO 100 KNOT JET ORIGINATES FROM CLOSE
TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 8N50W THROUGH 12N40W TO 19N30W TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA AT 26N. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N51W TO 24N65W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.

$$
CAB

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