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WTNT32 KNHC 280534
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE APPROACHING GUSTAV...STILL MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST...

AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF GRANMA WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.  ALL OTHER HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI WEST OF THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST LATER TODAY AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...75.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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