[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 210120
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY GAINING A LITTLE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS WITHIN
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS AGAIN BEEN EXTENDED FOR BREVARD COUNTY.

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...BREVARD...
INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 830 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST...ABOUT 40 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...OR 45 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN MELBOURNE INDICATES
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER TONIGHT...BUT
WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE PENINSULA.

FLZ047-054-059-141-147-220130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
920 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...EXTREME FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BREVARD COUNTY...
...GROWING HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY...
...ANOTHER LANDFALL FOR FAY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE FLOOD THREAT FOR BREVARD COUNTY REMAINS EXTREME. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FOR BREVARD COUNTY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH BREVARD.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY
AS RAINBANDS WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST OF FAYS CENTER.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...
BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT 830 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AND INTO
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS BAND
TO EXPAND OR EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY...WHERE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND STANDING WATER PROBLEMS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...EVEN IN ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

THE BREVARD COUNTY FLOODING EVENT IS NO DOUBT HISTORIC FOR THE AREA.
THIS MUCH RAIN HAS NOT OCCURRED LOCALLY SINCE HURRICANE ERIN IN
1995... WHICH IMPACTED MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS. DURING
ERIN...TOTALS WERE LOCALLY 9 TO 12 INCHES. THE RAIN WITH FAY HAS
ALREADY DOUBLED THAT OF ERIN! MORE SO...THE AVERAGE MONTHLY RAIN
TOTAL FOR MELBOURNE IS 5.78 INCHES. DURING THIS EVENT ALONE...AT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...RAIN TOTALS HAVE REACHED
17.63 INCHES SO FAR...AND IT CONTINUES TO RAIN. EVEN MORE
ASTONISHING...IN PARTS OF NORTH MELBOURNE...NEARLY 25 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED...AND AGAIN...IT CONTINUES TO RAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH AS MUCH AS 30 INCHES FOR LOCAL EVENT
TOTALS...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED.

THERE ARE MANY ROAD CLOSURES WITHIN BREVARD COUNTY AROUND
MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...SATELLITE BEACH...AND COCOA. DO NOT GO OUT
ONTO THE ROADWAYS AS DRAINAGE DITCHES AND RETENTION PONDS ARE
OVERFLOWING IN BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THE ROADS ARE
DIFFICULT TO SEE AND IT IS VERY DANGEROUS TO DRIVE. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS PLACES WHERE WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE
ROAD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT!

ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES ARE VERY LIKELY. PROBLEMS WITH SEWER
BACKUPS MAY OCCUR...AND CONTAMINATING STANDING WATER. ALSO...CHECK
WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR POSSIBLE WATER BOIL ALERTS IN YOUR AREA.
AS IMPOSED...ADHERE TO CITY CURFEWS.

ALSO...WILDLIFE WILL ALSO SEEK HIGHER GROUND. ALLIGATORS AND
WATER SNAKES WILL ALSO HAVE UNUSUAL ACCESS TO NEIGHBORHOODS AND
COMMUNITIES. BE CAREFUL!

ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES ARE VERY LIKELY. PROBLEMS WITH SEWER
BACKUPS MAY OCCUR...AND CONTAMINATING STANDING WATER. ALSO...CHECK
WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR POSSIBLE WATER BOIL ALERTS IN YOUR AREA.

FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM NEW
SMYRNA BEACH TO ORMOND BEACH...AND TRANSLATE INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF
VOLUSIA COUNTY.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT LAKE
HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER FLOOD
STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL INCREASE NORTH
OF LAKE HARNEY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF THIS
MORNING...THE STAGE AT ASTOR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2.5 FEET BY LATE
FRIDAY ABOVE THE ACTION STAGE OF 2.3 FEET...BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE
OF 2.8 FEET. AREA INTERESTS SHOULD WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LONGER TERM
RIVER FLOODING AT ASTOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS IF CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES WITHIN
THE BASIN.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
FAY... ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS INDIAN RIVER AND
SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT STILL
GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 45 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SQUALLS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY BY
THURSDAY...BUT NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...FROM BREVARD COUNTY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF FAY.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF FAY APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS IT TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
MAKES A SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL NEAR THE UPPER VOLUSIA COAST
OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS...FAY HAS STRENGTHENED AND ORGANIZED A
LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY CLOSELY.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM DAYTONA BEACH NORTHWARD
MOVING ONSHORE. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. IF A
TORNADO DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...NORTH OF THE CAPE. STORM TIDE WATERS MAY RUN 2 TO 3
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AGAIN BETWEEN 11 AM AND
NOON ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE. STORM
SURGE CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA
COAST...WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS ARE CREATING LONG DURATION
POUNDING SURF. BEACH EROSION WILL BE A CONCERN.

THE EFFECTS OF OF STORM TIDE WATERS WILL BE MINIMAL SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM FAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-220130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
920 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
FAY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. THE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK ONSHORE BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE
AND NEW SMYRNA BEACH OVERNIGHT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE
OPEN ATLANTIC AS FAY MEANDERS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE BEING REPORTED AT BUOY
41009 WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS AROUND 45 KNOTS.  SEAS ARE OVER 10 FEET
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD WHERE HEIGHTS
WERE 4 TO 6 FEET.  NUMEROUS SQUALLS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

FLZ041-044>046-053-144-212200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080821T2200Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
920 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...INLAND FLOOD THREAT INCREASING OVERNIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS JUST OFFSHORE NEW SMYRNA BEACH...AND WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY. FAY IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST OFFSHORE THE
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
HEADING BACK WEST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. SINCE FAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO LAND...IT NO LONGER IS
EXPECTED TO GREATLY REINTENSIFY AND SHOULD STAY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY STRENGTHENED A LITTLE. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA THROUGH
FRIDAY.

...WINDS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TURNS FAY TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE ANOTHER FLORIDA LANDFALL ALONG THE UPPER VOLUSIA COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE CONTINUE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STILL FREQUENTLY REACH 25 MPH...
AND UP TO 50 MPH IN SQUALLS TONIGHT. AS FAY MOVES ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40
TO 45 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS
INLAND VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT 830 PM...HEAVY RAIN WAS OCCURRING FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND
FLAGLER BEACH...TO DELAND AND DELTONA...TO BITHLO AND CHRISTMAS...
TO COCOA AND THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER. RAINBANDS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH SIDES OF FAY.

A FEW PLACES HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES IN WEST VOLUSIA COUNTY
AND NORTH LAKE COUNTY...MAINLY BETWEEN DELTONA AND ASTOR. AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT LAKE
HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER FLOOD
STAGE. RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL INCREASE NORTH
OF LAKE HARNEY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF THIS
MORNING...THE STAGE AT ASTOR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2.5 FEET BY LATE
FRIDAY ABOVE THE ACTION STAGE OF 2.3 FEET...BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE
OF 2.8 FEET. AREA INTERESTS SHOULD WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LONGER TERM
RIVER FLOODING AT ASTOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS IF CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES WITHIN
THE BASIN.

...TORNADOES...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM DAYTONA BEACH
NORTHWARD...AND INLAND TO NEAR SANFORD AND LEESBURG. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. IF A TORNADO DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$






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