[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 200124
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
924 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND WEAKENING A BIT...


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS WITHIN
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH
OF FLAGLER BEACH.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...
VOLUSIA...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 PM EDT...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE
SLOWER. THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING
FAY OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
65 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS FAY EMERGES OUT OVER WATER.

AFTER FAY CROSSES OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY IS
MUCH LOWER!


FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-210130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
924 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY APPEARS TO BE
SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE IN FORWARD SPEED...


...NEW INFORMATION...
TORNADO THREAT DECREASING SOMEWHAT AS THE DOMINANT BAND SHIFTS
NORTH. THE FLOOD THREAT HAS NOT DIMINISHED HOWEVER.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.


...WINDS...
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH ARE STILL BEING
INDICATED ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FAY. FAY CONTINUES TO
REMAIN ORGANIZED DESPITE BEING OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IT HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

THE STRONGER WINDS ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...OSCEOLA AND INDIAN RIVER
COUNTIES...AND THEN BREVARD COUNTY...DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS OF 50 TO 65 MPH OCCURRING ABOVE THE
GROUND...WHICH MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS AT GROUND LEVEL WITHIN HEAVY
RAIN AND SQUALLS. SINCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS A
VERY RURAL AREAS...NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED RECENTLY. HOWEVER...ANYONE IN THE PATH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH IMPACT FROM
INLAND FLOODING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MAJOR
FLOODING...AMONG SCATTERED LOCATIONS OF MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. FLOODING MAY BE ACCENTUATED IN LOW LYING SPOTS AND NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES. THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERN IS NOW FOR BREVARD AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES...BUT MAY SHIFT NORTH AND INLAND AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT
LAKE HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER
FLOOD STAGE. RAIN TOTALS IN THE VICINITY...SO FAR...HAVE NOT BEEN
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE IMMEDIATE CONCERN. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE
STAGE AT ASTOR IS THE CLOSEST TO FLOOD HEIGHTS...BUT IT HAS NOT
REACHED ACTION LEVEL. YET...IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
BASIN...RIVER FORECAST MODELS WILL BE INITIATED TO DETERMINE ANY
LONGER TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL. IMPORTANTLY...IF LARGE RAIN TOTALS
ARE EXPERIENCED IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TO DEAL WITH SHORTER TERM FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR ANYWHERE IN SEMINOLE...NORTH LAKE...WEST
VOLUSIA...COUNTIES.


...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE TORNADIC
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL BREVARD AND
NORTHEAST OSCEOLA COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT... AND THEN INTO EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY. THE THREAT AREA
ALSO INCLUDES THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF SEMINOLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METRO ORLANDO AND SANFORD AREAS.

IN GENERAL...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS
EARLIER TODAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING...THE THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM AROUND COCOA
BEACH NORTHWARD...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACE TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AREAWIDE AS THE CENTER OF FAY
APPROACHES THE EAST COAST IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF CAPE CANAVERAL
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-210130-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
924 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...


...NEW INFORMATION...
SINCE FAY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY ORGANIZED OVER LAND...ONCE IT
EMERGES OFFSHORE...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS....ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH TO FLAGLER BEACH MAY BE
NEEDED.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.


...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO
45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS HAVE ALREADY
BUILT TO 11 FEET AND THIS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS
RAINBANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.

LOCAL MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH
IMPACT...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO
INTENSE WINDS AND VERY HIGH COMBINED SEAS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
MAY BECOME VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

AGAIN...LATER TONIGHT OR OVERNIGHT...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A
HURRICANE WATCH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH
TO FLAGLER BEACH.

AT BEAUFORT SCALE 8...HIGH WAVES OF GREATER LENGTH FORM. AT
BEAUFORT SCALE 9...VERY HIGH WAVES BUILD WITH THE VISIBILITY
BECOMING AFFECTED BY BLOWING FOAM AND SPRAY. SMALL SHIPS MAY BE
LOST TO VIEW BEHIND WAVES.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


$$

FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144-200800-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0800Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
924 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY APPEARS TO BE
SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE IN FORWARD SPEED...


...NEW INFORMATION...
TORNADO THREAT DECREASING SOMEWHAT AS THE DOMINANT BAND SHIFTS
NORTH. THE FLOOD THREAT HAS NOT DIMINISHED HOWEVER.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...
OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND WESTERN VOLUSIA.


...WINDS...
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH ARE STILL BEING
INDICATED ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FAY. FAY CONTINUES TO
REMAIN ORGANIZED DESPITE BEING OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IT HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

THE STRONGER WINDS ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...OSCEOLA AND INDIAN RIVER
COUNTIES...AND THEN BREVARD COUNTY...DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS OF 50 TO 65 MPH OCCURRING ABOVE THE
GROUND...WHICH MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS AT GROUND LEVEL WITHIN HEAVY
RAIN AND SQUALLS. SINCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS A
VERY RURAL AREAS...NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED RECENTLY. HOWEVER...ANYONE IN THE PATH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH IMPACT FROM
INLAND FLOODING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MAJOR
FLOODING...AMONG SCATTERED LOCATIONS OF MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. FLOODING MAY BE ACCENTUATED IN LOW LYING SPOTS AND NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES. THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERN IS NOW FOR BREVARD AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES...BUT MAY SHIFT NORTH AND INLAND AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND ASTOR...THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE LATEST STAGE HEIGHTS AT
LAKE HARNEY...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR ARE ALL BELOW RIVER
FLOOD STAGE. RAIN TOTALS IN THE VICINITY...SO FAR...HAVE NOT BEEN
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE IMMEDIATE CONCERN. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE
STAGE AT ASTOR IS THE CLOSEST TO FLOOD HEIGHTS...BUT IT HAS NOT
REACHED ACTION LEVEL. YET...IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
BASIN...RIVER FORECAST MODELS WILL BE INITIATED TO DETERMINE ANY
LONGER TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL. IMPORTANTLY...IF LARGE RAIN TOTALS
ARE EXPERIENCED IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TO DEAL WITH SHORTER TERM FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR ANYWHERE IN SEMINOLE...NORTH LAKE...WEST
VOLUSIA...COUNTIES.


...TORNADOES...
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE TORNADIC WATERSPOUT THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM BETWEEN SEBASTIAN INLET AND
MOSQUITO LAGOON BY LATE EVENING...AND INTO THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM
AROUND COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD...AS INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS RACE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE BARRIER
ISLANDS AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

THE TORNADIC WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AREAWIDE AS THE
CENTER OF FAY APPROACHES THE EAST COAST IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
PORT CANAVERAL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


$$







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