[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 191658
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY REFUSES TO WEAKEN...STRONG WINDS BATTERING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST. THIS
POSITIONS IS VERY NEAR MOORE HAVEN FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER
FLORIDA.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR
WITH A GUST OF 78 MPH...125 KM/HR WAS MEASURED IN MOORE HAVEN.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 100 PM EDT POSITION...26.8 N...81.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 300 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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