[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 81.4W WHICH IS INLAND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ABOUT 26 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FT. MYERS
FLORIDA AND 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 19/1200 UTC MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY IS ELONGATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KEY WEST
FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR
29N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N83W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
23N-30N BETWEEN 77W-82W. T.S. FAY MADE LANDFALL OVER COLLIER
COUNTY FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS TILTED
FROM 20N62W BETWEEN THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N21W 13N34W 10N39W 7N53W
9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 8N-11N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 58W-60W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 34W-40W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN E OF 25W
TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING IS T.S. FAY
MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E U.S. TO
S GEORGIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING INLAND
EXTENDING FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING SE OVER N TEXAS
INTO OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ALONG NEAR 23N THEN IS BEING DRAWN NE TO
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W BY THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. THE CENTRAL AND S GULF REMAIN RATHER CLEAR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR E
GULF WILL CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS T.S. FAY MOVES IN A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY UPPER LOW WITH NE
UPPER FLOW W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 20N82W OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC JUST N OF PANAMA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. THE
ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC AGAIN THIS MORNING IS THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 25N62W EXTENDING A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH TO JUST N OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE N OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 22N52W TO BEYOND 32N52W
PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N60W TO
26N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
24N42W WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 30N20W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE
REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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