[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Aug 19 01:54:26 CDT 2008

WTUS82 KMLB 190654 PAA
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY APPROACHING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AT
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE...
...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH SQUALLS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
PENINSULA..

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS WITHIN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...
OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 8
AM. THIS INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 45
MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES AND 205 MILES SOUTH OF ORLANDO.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...AND A SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
WILL CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY COULD
STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-191330-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
254 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND FLOODING RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS RAINBANDS SPREAD NORTH...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RAINBANDS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS FAY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS NORTH
PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF TORNADO SIGNATURES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN PALM BEACH AND MARTIN COUNTIES. THIS
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
TODAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETE FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS. DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...
CARPORTS... AWNINGS...POOL ENCLOSURES...AND ROOF SHINGLES CAN BE EXPECTED.
LARGE BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED
TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN. WINDS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR UPDATED WEATHER BULLETINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IMMEDIATELY IF TORNADO OR
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

...WINDS...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
SQUALLS REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...AND
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY AS SQUALLS
SPREAD ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND ALSO LATER TODAY FARTHER
INLAND NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK... WIND CONDITIONS FOR LAKE COUNTY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG
SINCE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST OF STORM CENTER. THE CENTER TRACK
OF FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ORLANDO THIS
EVENING AND DAYTONA BEACH LATE TONIGHT.

RECENT SQUALLS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT VERO BEACH...31 MPH AT
FORT PIERCE...AND 43 MPH AT COCOA BEACH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A VERY LOW THREAT FOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL EXIST NEAR THE COAST AND
ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE WATERS
EXPECTED TO REACH LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. IN ADDITION...THE
LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY
SURF.

IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST DURING TIMES OF PEAK ONSHORE WINDS
COINCIDENT WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH WILL BE BETWEEN 1030 AND
1130 AM.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOTS RANGE GUSTING WELL INTO THE 30S OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SINCE FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH
SHORE...RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT
NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT...WHILE BELOW
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE...SOUTH BAY
AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY
DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS RAIN
BANDS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS SPREAD NORTH...WITH
MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL OF 2
TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN AN HOUR OR LESS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
HEAVIEST STORMS. HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN AN HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND MAY ALLOW WATER TO APPROACH HOMES IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN LAKE HARNEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

...TORNADOES...
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC
STORMS TO FORM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC DAMAGE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WITH THE THREAT AREA SPREADING
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. SEVERAL TORNADO SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED BY RADAR ACROSS PALM BEACH AND MARTIN COUNTIES ALREADY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER NO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE YET BEEN CONFIRMED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE... INDIAN
RIVER...AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-191330-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
254 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
AS RAINBANDS SPREAD NORTH...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RAINBANDS FROM AROUND STUART SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS FAY LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH UP THE PENINSULA. BRIEF TORNADO SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
WITHIN PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. RECENT
SQUALLS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS AT COCOA BEACH AND 27
KNOTS AT FORT PIERCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING
AS SQUALLS DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SPREAD NORTHWEST.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT DUE TO TROPICAL STORM
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.

...WINDS...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
SQUALLS REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVER ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD. THE CENTER OF FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR THE VICINITY OF DAYTONA BEACH LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM.

...TORNADOES...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SEVERAL TORNADO
SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN INDICATED BY RADAR ACROSS THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL WATERS ALREADY THIS MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144-191330-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0800Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
254 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND FLOODING RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AS RAINBANDS SPREAD NORTH...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RAINBANDS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS FAY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS NORTH
PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF TORNADO SIGNATURES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN PALM BEACH AND MARTIN COUNTIES. THIS
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
TODAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...
OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND WESTERN VOLUSIA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETE FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS. DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...
CARPORTS... AWNINGS...POOL ENCLOSURES...AND ROOF SHINGLES CAN BE EXPECTED.
LARGE BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED
TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN. WINDS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR UPDATED WEATHER BULLETINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IMMEDIATELY IF TORNADO OR
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

...WINDS...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
SQUALLS REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...AND
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY AS SQUALLS
SPREAD ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND ALSO LATER TODAY FARTHER
INLAND NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK... WIND CONDITIONS FOR LAKE COUNTY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG
SINCE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST OF STORM CENTER. THE CENTER TRACK
OF FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ORLANDO THIS
EVENING AND DAYTONA BEACH LATE TONIGHT.

RECENT SQUALLS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT VERO BEACH...31 MPH AT
FORT PIERCE...AND 43 MPH AT COCOA BEACH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A VERY LOW THREAT FOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL EXIST NEAR THE COAST AND
ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE WATERS
EXPECTED TO REACH LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. IN ADDITION...THE
LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY
SURF.

IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST DURING TIMES OF PEAK ONSHORE WINDS
COINCIDENT WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH IS BETWEEN 1030 TO 1130
AM EDT.