[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 181438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...CENTER OF FAY NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA TO TARPON SPRINGS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY.  TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N...81.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN



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