[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Aug 18 02:05:25 CDT 2008
WTUS82 KMFL 180705
HLSMFL
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
......HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...
.AT 2 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI OR 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH, AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES
CUBA...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
NEARS THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
FLZ069-075-174-181200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
305 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
INLAND FLOODING SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, FAR SOUTH
MIAMI DADE, AND MAINLAND MONROE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: HURRICANE WATCH, FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
DRINKING WATER, RECOMMENDED ONE GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD, REMEMBER THE CAN OPENER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MAY NOT WORK IF POWER IS OUT
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES, GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
PATIO FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS AS TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS CAN TURN THEM INTO PROJECTILES.
A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
COLLIER COUNTY FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS INCLUDING RESIDENTS AROUND
CHOCOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK AREA, EVERGLADES CITY, GOODLAND,
MARCO ISLAND, LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS, AND GORDON RIVER AREAS. THE
STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF MANUFACTURED HOME
COMMUNITIES. BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE VISITOR CENTER IS
CLOSED UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. POLITICAL CANDIDATES ARE ASKED TO
REMOVE ELECTION SIGNS TO PREVENT THEM FROM FLYING AROUND.
IF OR WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED,
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT COULD SPECIFICALLY BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK SIZE
AND INTENSITY OF FAY. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE IS
POSSIBLE WITH FAY, PARTICULARLY IF THE STORM ENDS UP BEING
STRONGER AND TRACKS EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EFFECT
BEING GREATEST AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WOULD PASS
ABOUT 60 TO 90 MILES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE STORM PASSES, AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST, A STORM TIDE OF UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF EVERGLADES
NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 3
TO 4 AM AND AGAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 PM TUESDAY. HIGHER STORM TIDE
VALUES OF UP TO 4 TO 7 FEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINES, PARTICULARLY AT
THE SECOND HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 TO 3 PM TUESDAY. FLOODING OF COASTAL
ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SHOULD THESE STORM TIDE VALUES BE OBSERVED.
RESIDENTS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST
ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND BE READY TO
EVACUATE IF ORDERED TO DO SO BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
...WINDS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF
COAST WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE REACHING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO HURRICANE FORCE IN
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE
INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER A TRACK
CLOSER TO THE COAST COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, A HURRICANE WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT.
THIS KIND OF WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE
HOMES, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS, POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME
SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT
SEVERAL SHALLOW-ROOTED AND DISEASED TREES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN.
LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND BECOME DANGEROUS
PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, EXCEPT WITH POCKETS OF WIDESPREAD
OUTAGES IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND POWER LINES.
ALL RESIDENTS OF COLLIER COASTAL COMMUNITIES INCLUDING METRO
NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK PROTECTIVE
ACTIONS SHOULD THE AREA BE PLACED UNDER A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING.
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE ADJACENT TO FLORIDA BAY ONLY
MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE CURRENT
FORECAST SCENARIO AT THIS TIME PARTICULARLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SHOULD THE STORM
END UP BEING STRONGER AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS STILL A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.
...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WOULD COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN
BANDS. SHOULD RAIN BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA
REPEATEDLY, OR SHOULD FAY END UP DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST TRACK
AND MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS COULD RESULT IN
EVEN HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOOD
WARNINGS. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
...TORNADOES...
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
FLZ168-172-173-181200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
305 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
INLAND FLOODING SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: TROPICAL STORM WATCH, FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
DRINKING WATER, RECOMMENDED ONE GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD, REMEMBER THE CAN OPENER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MAY NOT WORK IF POWER IS OUT
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES, GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
PATIO FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS AS TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS CAN TURN THEM INTO PROJECTILES. ELECTION SIGNS SHOULD ALSO
BE TAKEN DOWN TO PREVENT THEM FROM FLYING AROUND. IF OR WHEN
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK, AND GIVEN THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO
REMAIN ALERT AND COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS IF THE TRACK
CHANGES BACK TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS OUTLOOK COULD
QUICKLY CHANGE SHOULD FAY ENDS UP DEVIATING SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
...WINDS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ONLY WINDY CONDITIONS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME PARTICULARLY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEING FELT SHOULD THE STORM TRACK EAST
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST OR ENDS UP BEING STRONGER. THEREFORE...AND
UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE TRACK BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE, AND AS A
PRECAUTION, THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
HERE IS A 40 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM BEACH AREAS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL
THREE LOCATIONS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WOULD COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN
BANDS. SHOULD RAIN BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA
REPEATEDLY, OR SHOULD FAY END UP DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST TRACK
AND MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS COULD RESULT IN
EVEN HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOOD
WARNINGS. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
...TORNADOES...
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
ALL DAY MONDAY AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES
OR WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
FLZ063-066>068-070>074-181200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
305 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
INLAND FLOODING SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH, FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
RESTOCK ON PROVISIONS SUCH AS...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
DRINKING WATER, RECOMMENDED ONE GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD, REMEMBER THE CAN OPENER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH BECAUSE CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MAY NOT WORK IF POWER IS OUT
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES, GENERATORS, AND CHAIN SAWS.
PATIO FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS AS TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS CAN TURN THEM INTO PROJECTILES. SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WIND WARNING BE ISSUED, PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO
REMAIN ALERT AND COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD WARNINGS BE
ISSUED.
ALSO, BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY.
IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS INCLUDING RESIDENTS AROUND
CHOCOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK AREA, EVERGLADES CITY, GOODLAND,
MARCO ISLAND, LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS, AND GORDON RIVER AREAS. THE
STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF MANUFACTURED HOME
COMMUNITIES. BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE VISITOR CENTER IS
CLOSED UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. POLITICAL CANDIDATES ARE ASKED TO
REMOVE ELECTION SIGNS TO PREVENT THEM FROM FLYING AROUND.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS OUTLOOK COULD
QUICKLY CHANGE SHOULD FAY ENDS UP DEVIATING SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET, NO SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.
...WINDS...
FOR INLAND AND METRO SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES, WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVING TUESDAY EVENING.
ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE KIND OF WINDS ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY
COUNTIES WOULD BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
AND POOL ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES.
SMALL BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT.
WINDS IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE
GROUND LINES.
DESPITE THIS SCENARIO, IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AND WHAT ACTUALLY
HAPPENS COULD CHANGE FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE DEPENDING ON THE
ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 45 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
METRO AND INLAND MIAMI DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES; AND
55 TO 65 PERCENT FOR INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AROUND 5 PERCENT OR LESS OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL INLAND LOCATIONS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WOULD COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN
BANDS. SHOULD RAIN BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA
REPEATEDLY, OR SHOULD FAY END UP DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST TRACK
AND MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS COULD RESULT IN
EVEN HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOOD
WARNINGS. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
...TORNADOES...
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF
SQUALLS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
GMZ656-657-676-181200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
305 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
NO SPECIFIC NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE FOR THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 60 NM. COASTAL WATERS FROM
EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: HURRICANE WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD BE TAKING ACTION NOW TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT
ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STORM TIDE
AND HIGH WINDS. SECURING MARINE CRAFT IN MARINAS OR ALONGSIDE
DOCKS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA LINE FOR THE RISE AND FALL OF THE STORM
TIDE.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS BETTER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.
...TORNADOES...
SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS... ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF
SQUALLS.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
GUSTING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING, WITH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 5 TO 10
FEET NEARSHORE. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY EVENING, AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY... AS WINDS INCREASE. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK
SAFE PORT AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY
AS FAY PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
EXACT PATH AND INTENSITY OF FAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO BEGIN TAKING
PRECAUTIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT AND
SHORELINE PROPERTY SHOULD THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO BEGIN
TO MATERIALIZE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-181200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
305 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
NO NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, COASTAL WATERS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM, AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD BE MAKING PLANS NOW TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT...
ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET, NO SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS ABOUT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS LESS THAN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
...TORNADOES...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY ALL DAY MONDAY AND THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT
IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY
EVENING AND SPREADING NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGHOUT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS WOULD BE BUILDING TO AS
HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET DURING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD ALL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS WHOLE SCENARIO COULD CHANGE FOR BETTER OR WORST GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS FORECAST WHICH IS CONSIDERABLE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
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