[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180623 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 81.1W OR ABOUT 95 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA OR ABOUT 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY
WEST FLORIDA AT 18/0600 UTC MOVING NW AT 11 KT WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER
FAY COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC FROM 15N-27N
BETWEEN 72W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 83W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS CENTRAL CUBA
FROM E OF CAMAGUEY TO W OF SANTA CLARA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N25N BETWEEN 75W-83W.
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN
AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION MAINLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 29W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS TILTED FROM 21N57W ALONG
15N59W TO 10N61W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
DISTORTED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO THE E. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 14N25W 10N36W 7N45W 10N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF A LINE FROM 12N24W TO 9N28W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N28W TO 5N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE GULF TONIGHT IS THE APPROACHING T.S.
FAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE E U.S. TO THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING INLAND EXTENDING ACROSS S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N
GULF N OF 27N. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE W GULF
ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING ALONG 25N TO 90W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF WITH A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
28N87W. OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM T.S. FAY ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS S OF 25N E OF 84W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA. CONDITIONS OVER
THE SE GULF INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS T.S. FAY MOVES ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE T.S. FAY. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM THE
EXTREME SE GULF JUST N OF W CUBA/E YUCATAN CHANNEL SW TO N
BELIZE. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE T.S. FAY...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE
ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOR THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 74W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N W
OF 78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC TONIGHT IS T.S. FAY WITH OUTER
RAINBANDS CURRENTLY OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC N OF THE
REGION BUT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
30N W OF 73W TO JUST INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA.
UPPER HIGH IS OVER T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE A
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
STORM ITSELF WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N71W ALONG 28N76W TO
OVER FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 26N61W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 31N52W TO 22N56W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 18N52W 23N54W TO 28N52W. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E
NEAR 26N48W. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE TILTING THE TROPICAL WAVE.
A PAIR OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE IN THE E ATLC WITH ONE NEAR
28N38W AND A SECOND JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC
E OF 50W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY
A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W S TO 20N46W AND A
SECOND RIDGE AXIS W THROUGH BERMUDA TO 31N71W.

$$
WALLACE





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