[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 172040
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...MORE
CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON
SPRINGS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND WHEN IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS.  TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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