[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 170246
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN
FACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.
ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES...AND
IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS
A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS
INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS
BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THIS TRACK...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0300Z 19.4N  76.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  78.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  80.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 27.8N  82.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 31.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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