[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 170246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...FAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN
CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 44 MPH...71 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR.  RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N...76.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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